Is the opening of the Northeast Passage just false good news?

This article was originally published in our newsletter "Mobility" Analysis, March 11, 2021. To receive future articles by email as soon as they are published, Subscribe now.

To connect Shanghai, the world’s largest seaport, to Rotterdam, Europe’s largest seaport, the distance is approximately 19,600 km via the Suez Canal, compared to 14,900 km—30% less—via the Northeast Passage [1]. At first glance, a 30% shorter distance would seem to mean roughly a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions. In this context, one might therefore think that the gradual opening of this Northeast Passage [2] is excellent news for the environment. But is it really that simple? Here are a few points to consider. What are we talking about? The Northeast Passage corresponds to the route connecting Asia and Europe via the north—that is, from the Bering Sea to the Barents Sea, running primarily along the Russian coastline. Of particular note is the section—entirely within Russia—of the Northern Sea Route, stretching from the Bering Strait to the Kara Sea, and thus ending before reaching Europe.

Northern Sea Route.Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/jPjvcuUhqnc45XX3A

In terms of volume, however, this shipping route remains still very confidential at this point (due in particular to difficult navigation conditions: open only part of the year, polar night, floating ice, etc.). Traffic thus amounts to only a few dozen ships per year, a far cry from the thousands of ships that pass through the Suez Canal [3]. An ecologically sensitive area It is interesting to note that this new shipping route presents a trade-off between two competing environmental goals: reducing CO2 emissions—a 30% cut on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route—and preserving areas that are still largely free of human presence. This second aspect is far from negligible, as it has prompted several major retail brands (Puma, H&M, GAP, etc.) and the shipping industry (CMA-CGM, Kühne + Nagel, etc.) to commit to not using this route themselves, nor allowing others to use it for the transport of their goods [4].

A road used primarily to transport hydrocarbons Another key element of the analysis is the nature of the goods being transported. While some trials have been conducted with conventional consumer goods—such as the one carried out by Maersk in 2018 [5]—the majority of goods transported are raw materials, for which potential delays caused by difficult sailing conditions are less detrimental. Among these raw materials are, in particular, a significant proportion of hydrocarbons extracted in northern Siberia and shipped via the Northern Sea Route to China [6]. Russia’s infrastructure policy in the region explicitly aims to take advantage of this new route to expand the extraction and export of oil, gas, and coal [7]—with China’s blessing, as it sees this as a way to diversify its energy supplies [8]. The very first winter voyage along the Northern Sea Route, completed in January 2021 by three gas tankers, illustrates that this trend is, unfortunately, only just beginning [9]. Furthermore, beyond the issue of transportation, the continued reduction in sea ice coverage is fueling the appetite of oil and gas companies—both private and state-owned—to develop new offshore fields.

In summary, While the opening of the Northeast Passage presents an opportunity to reduce emissions from maritime transport, for the time being it is primarily driving increased extraction of fossil fuels—which cause global warming— while potentially endangering ecosystems—some of which are unique—that are already bearing the brunt of that same global warming. A kind of climate runaway effect, so to speak, but in this case, one that is entirely man-made.

Article written by Clément Mallet (Senior Consultant) clement.mallet@carbone4.com

Sources: [1] That is, 10,557M and 8,046M nautical miles (Albert Buixadé Farré et al. (2014) [2] Free of ice for 88 days in 2020—a record (Splash247) [3] Center for High North Logistics, Suez Canal Authority [4] Ocean Conservancy’s Arctic Shipping Pledge [5] Reuters [6] Center for High North Logistics [7] Maritime Executive [8] The Conversation [9] High North News